ENERGY LOAD MANAGEMENT (ELM): is a load forecasting and retail data management system for power marketers across multiple markets in North America. ELM is a “Software as a Service” (SaaS) model which is hosted and supported by Sirius Solutions. 

ELM provides: 

  • Load forecasting for North America Power Markets. 
  • Load profiling and aggregation. 
  • Customer-level data management.
  • Reporting and diagnostic tools.
  • Forecast variance analysis – weather, counts, model error.
  • Hosted system and hardware.
  • Access to our load forecasting experts to assist with diagnostics and business request.

Because it is a fully hosted service, ELM provides a cost-effective, best-in-class means of accurately forecasting retail load for all sizes of Retail Electric Providers, at a much lower up-front cost than self-hosted software packages or internally developed load forecasting applications. Our fee structure is based on a ‘pay as you go and grow’ model.

In addition to load forecasting, ELM can easily be integrated to other key retail and wholesale power applications, improving accuracy and manageability in many areas, including: 

  • Revenue Forecasting.
  • Contract Pricing.
  • Supply Management and Supply Position Reporting.
  • Short Term Scheduling and Settlement.
  • Management of “Smart Meter” Interval Data.
  • Wholesale and Complex Billing.
  • Retail reconciliation – comparison of utility data to billing system data.  

Service by Market

ELM currently provides retail power load forecasting services in multiple North American Markets. Modules currently available (minimal setup time): 

  • ERCOT 
  • SO-NE 
  • PJM 
  • NYISO 

Additional modules available upon client request (MISO, CAISO, Ontario, Alberta, others).

ELM Load Forecasting Methodology

ELM provides a bottom-up forecast based on service dates, usage history, and product/risk types (if desired) for each individual account, service location, or meter. The application supports all utility-provided load profiles and models. ELM also incorporates the ability to individually regress, model and forecast IDRs (interval data recorders) for larger commercial and industrial loads. Access to the reporting and diagnostic tools is tailored to each client’s needs and capabilities. Options range from email, web access, individual FTP sites, or direct integration to client systems.

The Cost of a Poor Forecast

Power market volatility, inaccurate forecasts, inadequate systems, and/or poor supply management can cause significant financial losses. Below is an actual example of the cost of such market volatility and the benefits of improved forecast accuracy: 

  • Improving Forecast Accuracy reduces supply cost and margin volatility: 

    • $1.85 + /customer/mo. improvement if forecast error is improved by only 50%
    • $2.90 + /customer/mo. improvement if forecast error is improved to ~best practices (2%)

Why Choose ELM?

  • ELM is a proven technology developed for and used by major power retailers; 
  • The ELM hosting service has been utilized effectively by large and small retailers;
  • The ELM Support Team has deep experience in both corporate operations and consulting for major energy retailers; 
  • ELM allows retailers to leverage this load forecasting expertise in a ‘pay as you go and grow’ model.

ELM Forecasting and Reporting

ELM is based on a bottom-up, meter by meter, hourly view of all of the data. Sirius Solutions provides short-term forecasts, long-term forecasts, and back-casts. That detailed data is then aggregated into as many different views as needed by the clients, based on preference and uses. We compare to utility settlement data and EDI transactions to assess accuracy and variance drivers. ELM also has the capability to ‘drill-down’ into the details to help find drivers of forecast variances.